Benefits of being a Localize It! member

 My Localize It! card

Got me this, a Passport to the commissioning of the USCGC Stratton at Coast Guard Island

Which gave me a chance to use my Nikon D5100 and behave like a paparazzi to take the following close-up pictures.....

of First Lady Michelle Obama!

Prediction by Carter Worth (less) of Oppenheinmer

On Feb. 16, here is a quote from Chief Market Technician (impressive title) of Oppenheinmer during an interview by Susie Gharib of the Nightly Business Report:

GHARIB: And talking about euphoria, there has been a lot of euphoria about shares of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). You have a “sell” on the stock. Let’s take a look at this chart too which closed above the $500 level today but it has been hovering back and forth in that area. What’s your technical analysis on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)?

WORTH: All right, so we went out with that yesterday, after the close which is to say when you have what’s called a key reversal day, where a stock has been in a long-term up trend, that then on the day in question has yet euphoric new highs, almost incredibly so where people cannot believe it’s not stopping, it’s not stopping. And then in that very day that session it closes on the absolute low which is also the case yesterday, down on the day and very, very heavy turnover. Volume at or near a record, it reflects an intermediate top that is likely to stand for many, many months. So that high of $526 yesterday and we closed down at $490 or thereabouts. That should set the top for months. 


Soooooo, "$526 should set the top for months"


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On March 19, CNBC interviews Carter Worth

CNBC: i know how you pay for the apple ipad, you sell a stock and use the money left over. we are talking numbers today. stock up 80% in the last year, up another 2% this day after the company compared the dividend of 65 a share for each quarter and $10 billion buy back as well over the next three years. but, is it time to buy this stock or is it time to take profits here? joining us in talking numbers, lucky guy that he is, carter worth, chief market technician at oppenheimer.  

Worth:  sure. it is an icon. an icon, juggernaut. just how steep the appreciation is in relation it trend and context is very important. we look at angles of the lines right now in the context.  

CNBC:  any time you have a stock that goes hyper bolic like that, you know it can't last forever but it is still going on.  

Worth:  it is a question of timing. this average, we have gone from 425 to 600, up 40% above the average. so we went back and looked, for fun, how does apple do once reaching 40% above the average. that's happened only 12 times since the ipo in 1982. here it is -- here it is going back five years. bounces, bounces, bounces, bounces. yet again, odds favor, and it does go higher. only two times of the 12 where it goes lower. we are taking the contrarian view better that this is one of the times. one of the very things that you referred to. long-term is -- go ahead. long-term is quite interesting. this is going back since the -- since 2002. right. ten years. and it shows you quite precisely this channel that we have been in. and how basically, we're moving out of that channel for the first time in quite sometime. and that's also border line too far too fast. now if you are bold and want to go against the odds, sell short. 

CNBC: okay, so let me get this straight here though. the point of technical analysis, look at the chart, look at -- fly air lanes. everything says it is overbought. everything says it's too expensive. crowded trade. but we have goldman today issuing another price increase, going to $700. and you're still not convinced it is time to take profit share.  

Worth: stats argue for higher prices. if you look at one in three months, every time this circumstances happen, 40% of that 12 times that happened since the ipo, nine out of 12 and 10 of 12 in the other, this is higher. this is make the bet where this is one of the rare times it is not sustained.  

(for clarification purpose:  Worth indicates that the stats show that Apple will continue the run higher, however he is telling people to take the other side of the bet predicting the price will go lower)

CNBC:  we will see. we will see. carter, thank you for your bravery in trying to deal with that. when we do trade the close a little bit later this hour, we will get another view. in that case we will find out why you should be buying the stock right now.

Conclusion regarding Carter Worth:  On the one hand, when the charts and stats indicate the stock won't go any higher, he agrees (Feb 16 interview).  On the other hand, when the charts and stats indicate the stock will go higher, he advises people to take the opposite approach (March 19 interview).  According to Mr. Worth, charts and stats are used to take the emotions out of decision making, yet he clearly demonstrates that he lets emotions play into his decision making.  Hmmmmm???