What people say versus what people do!

BEFORE Black Friday Poll

Many Consumers Plan to Spend Less This Holiday Season

By ANN CARRNS | New York Times

With economic concerns weighing heavily, 42 percent of Americans --and 49 percent of parents -- say they plan to spend less this holiday season than last year, a recent survey found.


Princeton Survey Research Associates conducted the telephone survey of 1,005 adults in early November. The margin of sampling error is four percentage points.

The index fell to its second-lowest level of the year, as feelings of job security hit a new low. Just 13 percent of Americans feel more secure in their jobs now than they did one year ago, which helped drag down the overall index to 92.5 points, just above the 2011 low of 92.3 recorded in August. (A reading below 100 indicates decreasing levels of financial security compared with 12 months earlier.)

After Cyber Monday Facts

According to IBM Coremetrics, Cyber Monday sales were up 33% from last year, a huge increase even from previous years.

Cyber Monday was not the only day over the long Thanksgiving weekend which saw an increase in online sales. ComScore estimates online retailers sold approximately $1.3 billion dollars in merchandise on Thanksgiving and Black Friday combined, up 23% from last year.

Retail sales on Black Friday climbed 6.6% this year to an estimated $11.4 billion, according to ShopperTrak, which tracks foot traffic at malls and stores. Last year, sales climbed just 0.3% to $10.7 billion, which was a record one-day sales amount at the time, according to the company. 

Fasten your seatbelt

According to Tom Lee, JP Morgan US Equities Chief Strategist, the S&P 500 will reach 1350 by year-end.  Roughly speaking that's a rise of 1500 points in the DJIA!!!!  In one month!!!!!  :-)

JC Penney to become JC Gold???

By Bill Ackman

I have had the opportunity to spend time with Ron Johnson over the last nine months as he finished his career at Apple and began planning for his leadership role at JCP. Based on this experience and my assessment of his talents, creativity, and relevant expertise, I expect to look back on the decision by the company to hire Ron, and our role in identifying and recruiting him, as one of the most significant contributions that we have ever made to any company over the life of our firm.

One of the benefits of hiring a superstar CEO is the quality of the talent he can recruit. Ron recently hired Michael Francis to be President of JCP, a former colleague and a 22- year veteran of Target who was likely to be Target’s next CEO. Michael is considered by many in the retail community to be the best marketer in the business. For the last 10 years, Michael ran Target’s marketing and arranged deals with high-end designers who developed lower-cost lines for Target–the company’s recent Missoni deal is such an example–and drove the brand’s reputation as a high quality, high-fashion discount retailer.

Last week, Ron announced that Michael Kramer, CEO of the Kellwood Company, a private-equity-backed manufacturer and marketer of apparel and soft goods, would become COO of JCP. Before Kellwood, Michael was Executive VP and CFO of Abercrombie & Fitch. Prior to Abercrombie, Michael worked with Ron at Apple as the CFO of Apple Retail.

Daniel Walker recently was hired as Chief Talent Officer. Dan began his career at Federated Department Stores and later joined the GAP under Mickey Drexler where he worked to recruit talent during the GAP’s period of rapid growth and profitability. Afterwards, he was hired by Steve Jobs to serve in a similar capacity recruiting the talent that launched the iPod, iPhone, iPad, Apple and App stores. Dan is the best in his business and we expect he will make an enormous contribution to the transformation of JCP.

JCP will not be transformed overnight, although you should expect to see new marketing and merchandise presentation as well as organizational, structural, and cost control changes over the next year with the bulk of product changes beginning in 2013.

We expect our investment in JCP to be a long-term holding for the funds, and we have high expectations. We don’t buy 26% stakes and join boards of directors unless we believe an investment has enormous potential.

What it takes

By Michael Silver, Yahoo Sports

"Even the quarterbacks playing at the highest level right now – hell, especially Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Drew Brees – try to improve their mechanics, cognition and timing on a constant basis."

Yet another reason to buy Apple :-)

From Marketwatch.com:

In Silicon Valley, one still frequently hears the hackneyed phrase, “eating your own dog food,” which refers to the fact that a company uses its own technology.

Reuters

Unfortunately for Hewlett-Packard Co. HPQ , its executive chairman Ray Lane didn’t get the memo. A recent Reuters story on Lane, who is also a managing partner at Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, showed a photo of him at home in Atherton, Calif. There’s an unbranded laptop to his right. But the icon that shines brightly is on the laptop in front of him — an Apple Inc. AAPL MacBook.
Oops!

Can an Apple a day reinvigorate?

By KAREN TALLEY And TESS STYNES

J.C. Penney Co.'s new chief executive, Ronald Johnson, said Monday that he is out to "re-imagine" the department store, using current operations as his starting point.

In his first public comments since becoming Penney's CEO on Nov. 1, Mr. Johnson said he plans to foster an environment in which employees "think differently and work creatively" to turn the chain, which reported a loss for the fiscal third quarter, into a major innovative force.

"I get more excited every day about the potential of J.C. Penney," the former retail chief of Apple Inc. told analysts on a conference call.

Mr. Johnson said that in meetings with employees, he tells them, "I'm here to transform."

"I shared with them that as America's first store, it is time to assert leadership, reclaim our birthright and become America's favorite store," he added.

Mr. Johnson also said Michael Kramer, chief executive at Kellwood Co., a fashion-brand designer, will join Penney as chief operating officer on Dec. 5. Daniel Walker is heading Penney's human-resources department as chief talent officer, a title he held at Apple.

Mr. Johnson declined to discuss strategy, saying he would provide a much fuller view of his vision at an analyst meeting Penney plans to hold in New York in January.

For the third-quarter ended Oct. 29, J.C. Penney swung to a loss, amid higher restructuring and management-transition charges. The company also said it expects a lackluster holiday season, compared with its peers. "While our more affluent customers continued to respond well to [J.C. Penney's] attractions, the moderate customer continues to have limited discretionary spending capability, and that was apparent during the quarter," said Executive Chairman Myron E. "Mike" Ullman, who stepped down this month as CEO.
In early afternoon trading Monday on the New York Stock Exchange, Penney shares were down 1.3% at $33.48.

Penney projected per-share earnings of $1.05 to $1.15 for the current quarter, with same-store sales flat to slightly higher. It also expects total sales will be 2.5 to 3 percentage points below same-store sales levels, owing to its exit from the catalog business.

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters recently forecast profit of $1.14 for the current quarter and a revenue decline of 2% to $5.62 billion.

For its third quarter, Penney posted a loss of $143 million, or 67 cents a share, compared with a year-earlier profit of $44 million, or 19 cents a share. Excluding restructuring and management-transition charges, the company had earnings of 11 cents a share in the quarter just ended. Last month, Penney cut its guidance to earnings of 10 cents to 15 cents, excluding the higher restructuring expenses.  When also excluding pension costs, the company's per-share earnings fell to 18 cents from 34 cents a year earlier.

Gross margin, a gauge of profitability for products sold, fell to 37.4% from 39% amid lower sales and a higher level of promotions. The retailer sees gross margin falling "modestly" in the current period.
The company recently reported that total sales fell 4.8% to $4 billion mostly reflecting its exit from its catalog and catalog outlet businesses as same-store sales declined 1.6%.

Penney has been in heated competition with rivals Macy's Inc. and Kohl's Corp. Macy's started off the third-quarter reporting season for major retailers last Wednesday, posting strong earnings on continued momentum from its sales strategy that focuses on local tastes. Kohl's followed on Thursday, also posting strong profits, with a boost from its focus on exclusive and brand names.

(we'll check back in January)