Thursday, February 23, 2012
I wonder if Apple shareholders gave a round of applause to H-P?
Apple can thank H-P for firing Mark Hurd in 2010 and hiring that ex-SAP looney to replace him. As a result, I believe many of the corporate PC sales that belonged to H-P were switched over to Apple. As if Apple needed anymore assistance!!!
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
Jeremy Siegel vs. Harry Dent
Confused?
Jeremy Siegel, a noted Professor of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business, says a Dow 15000 to even 17000 is a good possibility. On the other hand, Harry Dent predicts a Dow 6000 down to even 3800 is a strong possibility.
Here are some past predictions by Harry Dent: In 2000, based on his forecast that economic growth would continue throughout the 2000s, Dent predicted that the DOW would reach 40k, a prediction which was repeated in his 2004 book. In his book, he also predicted the NASDAQ would reach 13-20k. In late 2006 he revised his forecasts to much lower levels, estimating the Dow would reach 16-18k and the NASDAQ 3-4k. In January 2006, he predicted that the DOW would reach 14-15k by the end of the year. It ended 2006 at 12,463, 11% below the lower end of his prediction. It ended 2007 at 13,264, again significantly lower than Dent's revised prediction of 15,000 by early 2008.
Here is a past prediction by Jeremy Siegel: He predicted that "the economy will avoid a recession" in 2008. His crystal ball also revealed that "the stock market will have another winning year in 2008" and that "financial stocks, which have plummeted 18 percent so far this year, will outperform the S&P 500 index next year [2008] as the credit crises fades." The S&P 500 lost 38.49 percent in 2008, its worst year since 1937. Financials underperformed all market sectors, losing 56.95 percent.
Jeremy Siegel, a noted Professor of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business, says a Dow 15000 to even 17000 is a good possibility. On the other hand, Harry Dent predicts a Dow 6000 down to even 3800 is a strong possibility.
Here are some past predictions by Harry Dent: In 2000, based on his forecast that economic growth would continue throughout the 2000s, Dent predicted that the DOW would reach 40k, a prediction which was repeated in his 2004 book. In his book, he also predicted the NASDAQ would reach 13-20k. In late 2006 he revised his forecasts to much lower levels, estimating the Dow would reach 16-18k and the NASDAQ 3-4k. In January 2006, he predicted that the DOW would reach 14-15k by the end of the year. It ended 2006 at 12,463, 11% below the lower end of his prediction. It ended 2007 at 13,264, again significantly lower than Dent's revised prediction of 15,000 by early 2008.
Here is a past prediction by Jeremy Siegel: He predicted that "the economy will avoid a recession" in 2008. His crystal ball also revealed that "the stock market will have another winning year in 2008" and that "financial stocks, which have plummeted 18 percent so far this year, will outperform the S&P 500 index next year [2008] as the credit crises fades." The S&P 500 lost 38.49 percent in 2008, its worst year since 1937. Financials underperformed all market sectors, losing 56.95 percent.
Thursday, February 16, 2012
Reality Check IV: Go Raiders Go. After 25 years, I'm a believer again!
On Jan.06, 2012, I included a short article on new Raiders GM Reggie McKenzie with his former boss indicating that Mr. McKenzie has a talent for judging and finding player personnel. Original Article here. I'll go many steps further and proclaim that Mr. McKenzie has incredible insight into judging coaches and administrative staff as well.
Al Davis, the once great, but obsolete owner of the Raiders during his last 10 years, would have continued to fall victim to the loud mouth, "it's not my fault", "let's throw all the players and coaches under the bus when we lose", "I'm gonna get more involved in this organization" coach. What did Mr. McKenzie do to that coach? Canned him like fruit cocktail that you would see at WalMart :-)! Then brings in Dennis Allen, a disciplinarian who doesn't talk like a politician, but will coach like a coach should, similar to Tom Coughlin of the Super Bowl winner New York Giants, Bill Belichick of prior year's Super Bowl winner of the New England Patriots. (Of course, I'll check back on Mr. Allen's progress in December).
What does Mr. McKenzie do to Stanford Routt, the $54 million cornerback, who was declared the cornerstone of the Raiders defense, better known as "Burnt Toast" (for being burned like toast by all the wide receivers)? Shown the exit, where he belong.
My prediction: The 2012 Raiders will make the playoffs. Finally!!!!
Al Davis, the once great, but obsolete owner of the Raiders during his last 10 years, would have continued to fall victim to the loud mouth, "it's not my fault", "let's throw all the players and coaches under the bus when we lose", "I'm gonna get more involved in this organization" coach. What did Mr. McKenzie do to that coach? Canned him like fruit cocktail that you would see at WalMart :-)! Then brings in Dennis Allen, a disciplinarian who doesn't talk like a politician, but will coach like a coach should, similar to Tom Coughlin of the Super Bowl winner New York Giants, Bill Belichick of prior year's Super Bowl winner of the New England Patriots. (Of course, I'll check back on Mr. Allen's progress in December).
What does Mr. McKenzie do to Stanford Routt, the $54 million cornerback, who was declared the cornerstone of the Raiders defense, better known as "Burnt Toast" (for being burned like toast by all the wide receivers)? Shown the exit, where he belong.
My prediction: The 2012 Raiders will make the playoffs. Finally!!!!
Monday, February 13, 2012
Reality Check III (this is not the OMG article)
In late November of 2011, Tom Lee of JP Morgan predicted the S&P would finish above 1350 by the end of 2011. Original Article is here. Mr. Lee was only off by 1.5 months. It finally went above 1350 on February 13, 2012. Still, a very good prediction.
Monday, January 30, 2012
Reality Check II
On 10/27/2010, I included an article by Reuters describing how Mindy Grossman of HSNI went on the offensive in developing sales instead of only playing defense and cutting cost during the midst of a vicious recession. Original Article On 10/27/2010, the stock price of HSNI was 29.89. One year, 3 months and an economic recession later, HSNI's stock is trading at 36.23, a 21.2% increase. What's more impressive is that this television retailer, cable channel 11 where I am, accomplished this during a period of economic contraction. Widening its product line, signing more celebrities, and providing shoppers with free TV concerts were but a few of the success stories. What's next? A weekly entertainment magazine for TV shoppers placed right next to People Magazine at the grocery store :-))? Suffice it to say, it's been a solid run.
Sunday, January 29, 2012
Reality Check
On 11/16/2011, I included an article about Ron Johnson taking over as CEO of JCP and the high price superstars he brought on board. Original Article Well, on 11/16, the stock price of JCP was 31.94. Today, 2 plus months later, the stock price of JCP is 41.42. A near 30% increase. As a result, the market cap for JCP has gone up from 6.82 billion to 8.85 billion, a whopping 2.03 billion dollar increase to shareholder value.
So far, Ron Johnson is proving that he is a rainmaker, unlike the majority of folks who are in rainmaking positions but produce drought like results. Can't get too excited just yet, because I remembered Sears had a short term bump when Eddie Lampert installed his executive team several years ago. Currently, Sears is on it's final leg, unless something extraordinary happens.
A great start for JCP, nonetheless.
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