A great quote from recently released A's pitcher Travis Blackley

Blackley lamented his fate after a nightmarish spring in which he posted a 14.21 ERA and allowed 27 hits in 12  2/3 innings. Opponents hit .450 against him.

"I kind of saw it coming, just from previous experiences," said Blackley, 6-4 with a 3.86 ERA in 24 games last season including 15 starts. "You've got to be making a lot of money to get away with the spring I had and still make the team."

Incredible....another article from a brainless author concerning an analyst and his Apple rating.  Wait....this is from 2010.  Read carefully!!!

An ‘I told you so’ moment for early Apple bear

 

Has Apple analyst Edward Zabitsky finally been proven right?

By Quentin Fottrell

In 2010, when Apple stock was trading at $199, Edward Zabitsky, CEO of ACI Research in Toronto, was the only analyst on Wall Street to rate the stock a “sell.” Over the next two years, shares went on a tear, peaking at just over $705 and making Apple the world’s largest company as measured by stock-market value. Today, shares have fallen by more than a third from that high. Through it all, Zabitsky has stuck to his bearish call; and while he has since been joined by a couple other pros who have sell ratings on the stock, including Adnaan Ahmad at Berenberg Bank and Per Lindberg at ABG Sundal Collier, Zabitsky retains the distinction, and in some circles the notoriety, of having gotten there first.


COMMENTS:  How could this be an "I told you so" moment?  "Proven right???"  I realize too well that aapl stock has performed very poorly since Sept. of 2012.  Nevertheless, the price of the stock as of the end of 03/28/2013, is 442.66.  Is 442.66 still a higher number than 199.00????  (OH, I should have known, "analysts" math is JUST different).

I thought the other analyst giving aapl a $710 price target was bad enough.  Here, this analyst is being lauded and applauded for rating aapl a sell at $199 back in 2010, even though the stock price today is 442.66.  Unbelievable... :-))

Read the green highlighted section carefully and stop vilifying Marissa Mayer for her 100% correct, proper and justifiable decision to ban telecommuting at Yahoo, for now at least.  This should serve as a warning to all remote workers.  Remote workers doesn't mean turning on the television with your tv remote control and watching soap operas or talk shows.  It doesn't mean going to the gym or finishing up your weekend project on that lousy, crooked looking wood work thing, you call a cabinet :-)))

How Marissa Mayer Figured Out Work-At-Home Yahoos Were Slacking Off (YHOO, GOOG)

Nicholas Carlson, provided by

Yahoo banned employees from working from home.

How did CEO Marissa Mayer decide to make such a controversial decision?
According to a source, the only way Mayer is comfortable making any decision: with the help of data.

Like a lot of companies, Yahoo has something called a Virtual Private Network or VPN. Remote workers can use it to securely log into Yahoo's network and do work.
(LifeHacker has a really good explanation of what a VPN is.)

After spending months frustrated at how empty Yahoo parking lots were, Mayer consulted Yahoo's VPN logs to see if remote employees were checking in enough.

Mayer discovered they were not — and her decision was made.

Kara Swisher first reported the news that Mayer was showing executives Yahoo's VPN logs to justify her work-from-home ban.  Mayer is famously obsessed with metrics and data.

 

Once, a Google designer quit the company in a huff because he was tired of how Mayer, in charge of how Google.com homepage looked, would choose design elements like color or font not based on taste, but raw data.

For every design variable, she looked at how users inteacted with Google with one design — and then the other.

If the data showed users were using Google.com faster one way instead of the other, that particular design choice won out.

It's hard to argue that Mayer's process didn't work for Google. It was not the first search engine on the market, but it's just about the only one anybody uses now.

Likewise, we're hearing from people close to Yahoo executives and employees that she made the right decision banning work from home.  "The employees at Yahoo are thrilled," says one source close to the company.  "There isn't massive uprising. The truth is, they've all been pissed off that people haven't been working."

HELLOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!  IS ANYONE THERE?  LOWERED TO $710???  IS $710 A TYPO???.....IT MUST BE A TYPO.....

Why Charlie Wolf lowered his Apple price target to $710
By Philip Elmer-DeWitt February 25, 2013: 12:43 PM ET
The difference between Wolf and Wall Street may be that he values Apple's cash holdings

FORTUNE -- There's something about Charlie Wolf's approach to Apple (AAPL) that I find charmingly old school -- perhaps because he's been in the business even longer (14 years at First Boston and 15 at Needham & Co.) than I have.
Most analysts seem to change their mind about Apple's prospects every time the wind shifts; Baird Equity's William Power, for example, has issued seven different Apple price targets in the past 12 months.
Wolf, by contrast, recalibrates his targets on a strict biannual schedule -- once in February and again in August. And he tells you with some precision how he arrives at those targets, breaking down Apple's line items -- Trefis style -- by their contribution to what he thinks the company ought to be worth.
In his most recent reevaluation -- issued Monday -- Wolf lowered his 12-month Apple price target to $710 from $750.

Data: Needham. Chart: PED. Click to enlarge.

That puts him an even $100 a share over the Street's median target (as reported by Thomson/First Call) -- primarily, as near as I can tell, because he puts a value on Apple's excess cash of $142.48 a share. According to Greenlight Capital's David Einhorn, the market values the company's $137 billion cash stockpile at less than zero.
The highlights of Wolf's latest report: (I quote)
On the positive side, the growth in excess cash over the past six months added $18.70 or 15.1% to Apple's valuation.
A newly minted line item — iTunes, software and services — contributed $83.48 or 11.7% to Apple's valuation chiefly because of the outsized gross margins Apple earns on its software.
On the down side, the value of the iPad fell $11.83 or 10.8% to $98.11 chiefly because of the introduction of the iPad mini, which has a much lower gross margin that the full-sized iPad.
The value of the iPhone fell $14.56 or 4.5% to $308.64 because of our assumption that the iPhone's worldwide share would stabilize at 20% rather than 22% as before.
The largest decline occurred in the Mac, whose value fell from $100.50 to $57.42, a 42.9% decline, in belated recognition that neither Mac nor Windows sales would continue to rise at past rates because of the onslaught of the iPad and other tablets.
"The lingering risk in the Apple story," he concludes, "is that the company may no longer innovate at the same pace and with the same disruption that characterized the era when Steve Jobs was at the helm. With respect to our valuation model, any deterioration in the iPhone's market share or gross margin would have an outsized impact on our price target."
Below: Wolf's current valuation spreadsheet. The NAs reflect line items that Apple rejigged in January.

OH NO!!!!!

Why do these rear view looking "analysts" have to ruin a good thing???? 

Update: Make That Two Analysts With $1,000 Targets On Google

It’s the latest Internet meme: raise your price target on Google to $1,000.
OK, so maybe we’re not talking Harlem Shakes videos here, but there does appear to be a trend forming.
As I noted previously, Bernstein Research analyst Carlos Kirjner has upped his target on the Internet search engine to $1,000. But it turns out he has company. CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets analyst James Lee likewise is showing the stock some love this morning, reiterating his Buy rating and upping his target to $1,000, from $900.
“We expect the [cost per click] improvement to accelerate on the back of Google’s recent announcement of a new ad management system,” Lee writes in a research note. “The purpose of this change is to simplify the ad-buying process in the multi-screen environment and increase the adoption of mobile search. The current system is segmented and complicated, barring less-sophisticated advertisers like local merchants from participating.”
Lee says the new system will have multiple beneficial effects:

• Improve mobile pricing through wider adoption.
• Drive mobile CPCs on par or higher with the desktop.
• Alleviate concerns that desktop volume might be slowing or declining.

Concludes Lee: “We believe that the likely accelerating mobile CPC trends could potentially reaccelerate Google’s revenue growth.”
GOOG today is up $6.82, or 0.9%, to $799.28.

And still No. 1 !!!!!!!

One BCS computer still ranks Notre Dame No. 1, because it’s the BCS

By Frank Schwab | Dr. Saturday – Thu, Jan 10, 2013 1:56 PM EST
You saw the BCS Championship Game, right? Well, at least the parts that mattered before turning to something more interesting, most notably Alabama rolling to a huge lead over Notre Dame and ESPN showing A.J. McCarron's girlfriend (I've seen better).

So you know that Alabama is the best team in the nation (no &^%$ way!). Nobody in their right mind would pick Notre Dame ahead of Alabama after witnessing the carnage that was 42-14 on Monday night (why not? or you mean nobody in their wrong mind)  Oh, but the BCS has a computer that still prefers the Irish (algorithms at its best). So let the BCS bashing continue (Keep the BCS).

The Colley Matrix, one of the six computer systems used by the BCS, has Notre Dame ranked No. 1 and the Crimson Tide No. 2. Notre Dame's final ranking was 0.973997 to Alabama's 0.961139. Notre Dame had an edge in strength of schedule (Can't argue with the facts). Alabama won more games against top 25 teams in the rankings (what a bunch of bs, Florida Atlantic, Western Kentucky..!). Margin of victory is not part of the calculations (why should it, Florida Atlantic, Western Kentucky?). No matter how the computer spit out that reading, it's worth mentioning again: An entity the BCS uses still prefers Notre Dame to Alabama. (it's worth repeating again)
An entity the BCS uses still prefers Notre Dame to Alabama.
They're not going to make Alabama give back the trophy over it or anything (time to sue!), and it's just one of the many rankings the BCS uses to determine who plays in the final game (not who is awarded the championship) but it just shows once again that there are flaws in the process (what flaws are we talking about?).

Is UGG's really that uggly???

Is Ugg losing some of its brand cachet?

Discounts on flash-sale site sparks concerns for parent Deckers

By Andria Cheng, MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Deckers Outdoor Corp., known best for selling sheepskin boots, has seen its shares lose more than three-fifths of their value since reaching an all-time high of $118 last October, and the stock slumped another 8.7% Tuesday.

At issue are growing concerns about the company’s flagship Ugg brand losing its appeal while grappling with increased sheepskin and labor costs. The brand is crucial for Deckers because it alone generated $1.2 billion of sales, or 87% of Deckers’ total revenue last year.

Ugg classic boots

Goleta, Calif.-based Deckers DECK -8.38%  also has other brands, including Teva and Sanuk sandals.

Yet the red flag over Ugg boots was raised again on Tuesday, after Sterne Agee analyst Sam Poser reported receiving an email alerting him to limited-time sales of in-season, classic Ugg styles in basic neutral colors from flash-sale site BeyondtheRack.com. The analyst added that was the first time he’s seen the boots on sale at such a discount site, and that he called Beyond the Rack to verify the authenticity of the shoes and learned the stock didn’t come from Deckers itself.

“It means some retailers have excess inventory,” Poser said in an interview, noting there were discounts of 15% to 50% off regular prices — including one discounted to $179 from $210. Those shoes are the “stuff people think of when they think of Ugg. This is the first sign of the prices starting to break. It means demand has gone down. Early reads on Ugg sales are not promising [and] bodes poorly for fall sales.”

Deckers didn’t immediately respond to a request seeking comment. The stock was last at $43.82, down 41% so far this year.

Poser already cut his rating on Deckers stock in July to underperform from neutral, citing concerns that the shoe company’s Asian and European sales won’t improve this year and that sales will likely be hurt by higher prices and little innovation in its Ugg Classic category. He said then that he expected inventory to far outpace demand, leading to discounts. Poser also cautioned Deckers could lose its fashion customers to brands such as Michael Kors Holdings Ltd. KORS -2.50%  

“It’s clear to us that the Ugg ‘fashion trend’ has faded,” Poser wrote in a note Tuesday about the brand, which has been worn by celebrities such as Sarah Jessica Parker. “The question remains as to how much of the Ugg business is weather-related and how much is fashion-related.”

“We continue to believe that there are material risks to both guidance and the overall health of the Ugg brand,” he added. “If prices on Classics break down, we believe that the future of the Ugg brand may be at risk.”

Deckers has said the bulk of Ugg business is done in the third and fourth quarters, and that weather has had a greater impact on its business in the past two years.

Retailers’ concerns about demand for Uggs and not being stuck with excess inventory has led to a change in wholesale orders for Ugg, Poser said. Whereas in the past retailers would buy about 70% of their fourth-quarter orders in October and November, because they didn’t want to be short of Uggs to meet demand, this year retailers are only buying 30% to 40% of their orders during the same period, according to the analyst.

Uggs are sold at chains including Nordstrom Inc. JWN -1.97%  and Saks Inc. SKS -1.68%  Wholesale sales have surged to $915.2 million last year from $291.9 million in 2007, the company said in a regulatory filing.

DECK 43.95, -4.02, -8.38%

At a Goldman Sachs presentation earlier this month, Deckers Chief Operating Officer Zohar Ziv said the company is dealing with what he described as a “perfect storm,” where sheepskin prices the past two years rose about 80%, hurting this year’s profit by about $1.40 a share; and by a European downturn that’s hurt retailers across the board. He also cited weather as a concern.

Ziv pointed out that Deckers is broadening its product assortment and decreasing classic styles as a percentage of its total, and that he expects sheepskin prices to come down. Other brands such as Teva and Sanuk are trending well, according to the executive.

Deckers also is still cautious about not overdistributing the brand, he said, and consumer surveys show there’s continued demand for Uggs. “We still think there are significant growth opportunities both domestically and clearly many more internationally,” Ziv commented.

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Comment:

Interesting how the analyst from Stern Agee is critical about Deckers being sold at Beyondtherack.com but then praises Michael Kors.  Look below, Michael Kors watches being sold at Beyondtherack.com on 09/18/2012.   Since I do have an account with beyondtherack.com and I have seen plenty of Michael Kors products offered in the past besides watches, I'll post future Kors sales as they come up in Beyondtherack.com.

Michael Kors